Best classification algorithms in peer-to-peer lending

A proper credit scoring technique is vital to the long-term success of all kinds of financial institutions, including peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platforms. The main contribution of our paper is the robust ranking of 10 different classification techniques based on a real-world P2P lending data set. Our data set comes from the Lending Club covering the 2009–2013 period, which contains 212,252 records and 23 different variables. Unlike other researchers, we use a data sample which contains the final loan resolution for all loans. We built our research using a 5-fold cross-validation method and 6 different classification performance measurements. Our results show that logistic regression, artificial neural networks, and linear discriminant analysis are the three best algorithms based on the Lending Club data. Conversely, we identify k-nearest neighbors and classification and regression tree as the two worst classification methods.     

Size of nested cities

Models of cities based on conventional spatial market theory are unable to replicate a realistic size distribution. The stochastic process approach to size distribution, which assumes proportionate growth, does not provide an economic foundation for spatial trades. There is an apparent irreconcilability. We propose that since there is a continuum of equilibria in models of spatial markets with endogenous location, proportionate growth can work as equilibrium selection. We present computations for an urban configuration that has not been presented in the literature before. A small city locates inside a larger city's agricultural supply zone. This generates a larger variation in city size that may include a realistic size distribution.     

家庭承包地“三权”分置的制度逻辑探究 ——基于制度需求与供给的视角

研究目的:阐明"三权"分置的制度逻辑,为制度供给的增量调整提供一种思路。研究方法:文献分析法、政策文本分析法。研究结果:当下农民、新型农业经营者出现新的制度诉求,既有土地承包经权营制度不足以满足该需求。承包地制度供给创新要做实承包权,辨明"三权"分置下经营权所处的位置。土地经营权的权利塑造过程应坚持物债二分法,实现物权法、合同法双重法制途径的并重。研究结论:承包地"三权"分置本质上是理论创新问题,辨清"三权"分置的制度逻辑,仍需以实践需求为出发点,新的制度供给是一个增量调整与立法跟进问题。对经营权性质的探讨有必要融入物债二分逻辑,对于短期限的土地经营权,应按照契约自由原则,实行意思主义,权利类型、权利内容经双方自由创设,对长期存续的土地经营权可实现物权化,实行物权法定主义,按照法定规格与程序流转。     

基于GIS和RS的蓄滞洪区和谐发展的技术路线

应用遥感与地理信息系统技术构建基于GIS模型的蓄滞洪区空间数据库,对蓄滞洪区内的基础地理数据进行存储、管理,并对空间数据进行可视化和空间分析等操作;运用RS技术对蓄滞洪区内的土地利用、生态环境变化等情况进行动态监测,建立蓄滞洪区发展指标体系;探求蓄滞洪区的和谐发展模式,为蓄滞洪区的可持续发展提供科学依据。     

Factors driving embodied carbon in international trade: a multiregional input–output gravity model

ABSTRACT

Concerns about the effects and consequences of climate change have notably increased in recent decades. Despite large advances in the understanding of this phenomenon, further research into the determinants of gas emissions is necessary, to shed light on the responsibilities of producers and consumers, and their potential contribution to mitigation strategies. This paper studies the trajectories and determinants of carbon embodied in world trade during a period of 15 years. Our methodology relies on a multiregional input–output model, environmentally extended. Drawing on data from the World Input–Output Database, we estimate embodied emissions in bilateral flows. Then, we assess the determinants of CO₂ emissions embodied in trade, combining input–output modelling with trade gravity panel data analysis. This paper offers a methodological approach that explains and quantifies the underlying factors of carbon trade, integrating the production and consumption perspectives and considering the geographical, structural and institutional context of countries.     

Global norm of national treatment for patent uncertainties: A longitudinal comparison between the US and China

Sporadic studies on the global norm of national treatment for patent uncertainties (NTPU) urge for insights of changes as well as for clarification to discrepancy. This global norm has been a concern for policy makers and practitioners for over a century, as a socially and strategically more significant matter than before for multilateral cooperation given the active technology transfer across borders. To fill in the void and extend prior studies, we examine the global compliance of NTPU from the perspective of patent pendency and granting by addressing three relevant questions: (1) Is NTPU upheld within countries? (2) How does NTPU diverge across countries? (3) How does NTPU change, as an outcome, over time? Based on the institutional theory, lagged regression modeling and longitudinal comparison of US and Chinese patenting, our findings reveal that: (1) NTPU is overall upheld because equality in pendency is demonstrated in both countries and in US granting, and foreigners are even favored for Chinese granting. (2) NTPU is comparatively divergent between the countries in pendency and granting due to national variations. (3) Regressive and progressive changes in NTPU are evidenced since both countries provide equal or higher granting, but longer pendency than before. Our findings contribute to theories by providing new insights to the global norm of national treatment and institutional theory from the perspective of patent uncertainties. We make novel empirical contribution to address NTPU changes of the top patent filing countries and methodological contribution to the longitudinal comparative study. The results also provide implications that concern policy makers and practitioners to handle patent uncertainties across borders.     

Uncertainty,Control, and Karl Polanyi’s Protective Response

Post-Keynesian institutionalist economists like Wallace Peterson and John Kenneth Galbraith recognized that the impact of uncertainty on economic wellbeing depends in part on the degree of control people have over the sources and consequences of it. Given the inability of government and other large institutions to reduce uncertainty or to provide citizens with the ability to manage it, mediating structures are considered as an alternative means of promoting economic security. The article concludes by describing and evaluating several of these alternatives.     

Assessing the role of components of life satisfaction

Factors affecting subjective well-being and their gross effect measurement have been widely studied. However, how people derive utility from these factors has not been fully explored. This article provides a way to decompose the gross effect of major determinants on life satisfaction into direct and indirect effects and make inference for the latter. Because the indirect effect is nonlinear in parameters associated with different models in an equation system, it creates a problem in estimating the standard error. Besides, the categorical nature in survey data further introduces bias to the covariance estimation even asymptotically. To address these issues without knowing the form of heteroskedasticity under the null hypothesis, we propose to extend the wild bootstrap procedure in this particular context. Its robustness against various data properties is validated via several simulation experiments. Using three recent waves of World Values Survey, we find that the relative importance of life control has significantly increased recently, and endowing citizens with the right to enjoy their freedoms and liberties is a more effective policy in raising life satisfaction than promoting national income.     

关于加快农田水利供给侧改革的几点思考

我国灌溉面积位居世界第一,主要矛盾由总量不足转变为结构性矛盾,深入推进供给侧结构性改革提上议程。针对存在的主要结构性矛盾,研究提出系统解决方案,即调整结构、去除库存、提升品质、降低成本、补齐短板。调整结构重点是严格落实"以水定地",着力以水资源、水生态、水环境承载能力倒逼灌溉面积调整;去除库存重点是依法实施"僵尸"工程降等报废,及时办理注销登记;提升品质重点是大力发展高效节水灌溉,提升灌溉服务质量;降低成本重点是深化国有灌区管理体制改革,创新"最后一公里"管理模式;补齐短板重点是坚持统分结合、重点在统的原则推进农田水利产权改革,深化农业水价综合改革,建立准确补贴机制。     

Frustration-driven process improvement

When employees are empowered to continuously record their employment-related frustrations—doing so on accessible, visually prominent media—process improvement becomes upgraded to operate in a truly continuous mode. Frustrations are a superior target of process improvement in that they get at deep-seated concerns of people who have first-order process awareness and are most directly impacted by process failings. Recording frustrations not only provides a sound basis for pressing on to solutions, but it is also cathartic. The act of recording frustrations prominently on company-sanctioned media provides a positive outlet for the frustrations themselves.